bird flu

[skylender]

will it really hit as hard as they say? or is it just a media scare? scientist are saying it may kill 150 million people(three percent of human population)

the spread of h5n1 is global in scope as bird can easily catch it from each other,HOWEVER it's extremely rare in humans, and transmission rate is LOW,

While H5N1 is mutating into variations which infect species not previously known to carry the virus, not all of these variations can infect humans. Scientists suspect that H5N1 is hard to spread from human to human because the virus infects cells deep in the lungs (and other organs as the disease progresses), not nasal passage cells. Because of this, the virus doesn't shed from the nose (or other upper respiratory cells), so sneezing and coughing don't spread the disease.[1]



how ever a highly pathogenic varient of h5n1 is spreading around the world, most bird that to contract the virus don't even get sick from it. however h5n1 is also spread through domestic poultry, both through movements of infected birds and poultry products, and the use of infected poultry manure as fertiliser or feed. Humans with H5N1 have typically caught it from chickens, which were in turn infected by other poultry or waterfowl.

While H5N1 is mutating into variations which infect species not previously known to carry the virus, not all of these variations can infect humans. Scientists suspect that H5N1 is hard to spread from human to human because the virus infects cells deep in the lungs (and other organs as the disease progresses), not nasal passage cells. Because of this, the virus doesn't shed from the nose (or other upper respiratory cells), so sneezing and coughing don't spread the disease.[1]



how ever a highly pathogenic varient of h5n1 is spreading around the world, most bird that to contract the virus don't even get sick from it. however h5n1 is also spread through domestic poultry, both through movements of infected birds and poultry products, and the use of infected poultry manure as fertiliser or feed. Humans with H5N1 have typically caught it from chickens, which were in turn infected by other poultry or waterfowl.

post by reayx:
Avian Flu, a.k.a "Bird Flu" is caused by the virus: Orthomyxoviridae Influenzae This specific strain has Hemagglutonin antigen #5 (H5), and Neuridimase antigen #1 (N1). H5N1, as it is more formally known is one of the most pathogenic Orthomyxoviruses ever seen, with the 1918 strain (H2N2) being the next in line. The virus causes a massive multi-systemic assault which lays waste to almost every component of the human body. The virus has a CFR of 50-80%, close to that of Filoviridae Ebolavirus Sudan's CFR! However, on the other hand, it as a very low transmission rate.


Duck are the natural resevoir for ALL influenza viruses, which happen to inhabit the Duck's lower digestive tract. The virus is spread through DIRECT CONTACT WITH THE FECES OF INFECTED BIRDS, putting hunters, defeather-ers, farmers, and the like, at greatest risk for infection. Eating properly cooked poultry CANNOT spread the virus.


The virus has been reported in human infections as far as Romania, Turkey, and Egypt.


The virus was beginning to cause trouble at least A YEAR BEOFRE AMERICAN AUTHORITIES ACKNOLEGED THE VIRUS' PANDEMIC THREAT. So, when the pandemic does occur, the populus will have no one to blame but themselves and the government. Because, if we HAD intervened early enough, the virus could have been stopped, but alas, it is now too late for mankind.


It is not a matter of IF, IT IS A MATTER OF WHEN! The virus has spread too far to be able to be stopped by mass culling as it was in 1997. Given its widespreaded-ness, and the speed at which your average virus multiplies (which can be modeled by the equation: f(x) = 100,000^(x)) it is only a matter of time befor the "H" antigen shifts enough to allow for direct person to person transmission


ALL BIRDS HAVE THE ABILLITY TO CARRY THE VIRUS IN THIER INTESTINES.


Ducks are asymptomatic, meaning that even when they are infected with H5N1, they do not get sick. This allows them to spread the virus wherever they go.




Some statistics:


The 1918 Influenza virus had a CFR of approx. 2%, killed AT LEAST 100 MILLION PEOPLE!


The approximate deaths from an H5N1 pandemic would be at least ONE BILLION people!

Here is a table of values for: f(x) = 100,000^(x)
(When X is the number of viral generations, each lasting about 2 hours, and Y is the number of viruses, any one of which could posses the correct mutation for man-to-man transmission.)

x|f(x)
———
0| 1
1| 100,000
2| 10,000,000,000
3| 1,000,000,000,000,000
4| 100,000,000,000,000,000,000
5| 10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

So, after about 10 hours there are 10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 viruses!

[Slater]

yeah, I think it's a threat. So far, it's been contained faily well though. Yeah, it has the potential to kill millions, as has happened in the past, but I doubt it will come to that since the world in general has a better knowledge of how to keep clean.

also, note that with the table, the function isn't quite like that. If that were so, such a virus could consume the space of the earth's volume in a day or two. Lots of viruses start to die off after a while.

[skylender]

true..

[Warrior 4 Jesus]

Why are you so interested in these diseases? Didn't you post a couple other topics similiar? I know it's wise to be mindful of them but this borders on obsession.
I hope the birdflu doesn't make it to Australia.

[Mithrandir]

Not to panic you, but yeah. Every 100 years or so a strand of avian flu will mutate such that it can be spread easily from human to human. When it happens, lots of people die. Before the days of major public works sanitation, we didn't have the population density we have today, so it wasn't AS big a thing to worry about.

Best case scenario: It's better to be safe than sorry.

[skylender]

Why are you so interested in these diseases? Didn't you post a couple other topics similiar? I know it's wise to be mindful of them but this borders on obsession.
I hope the birdflu doesn't make it to Australia

i just like the microbes that cuase them

[Uriah]

Let's shoot every duck in the planet! AHHAHAHAAH!

[skylender]

Let's shoot every duck in the planet! AHHAHAHAAH!

won't work, other birds carry the virul infection as well, my friend.

[Azier the Swordsman]

I saw somewhere that saurkraut (I have no clue how to freaking spell that) was useful against it.

Dunno about the validity of that, though.

[Slater]

in the words of Weird Al... "I... HATE... SAURKRAUT!"

[Bap]

Meh. xD I'm worried yeah, but nothing bad's happened... yet. u_u Although, that's why everytime we go to the store, I get my mum to buy some extra cans of food to store away! xD

I also read in this magazine that it'd be bad for piggies to get teh bird flu, because they can also get human flu. And what would happen is if the piggy has both of 'em inside it, they would have uh.. 'virus sex' they called it. xD; And the outcome could be a bird flu that's really contagious for humans. u_u

[FadedOne]

hmm...i've not paid much attention this issue, but it does seem to be scary. However, seeing as how 95% of the time I eat vegetarian i'm not entirely worried for myself. The very condition of today's meat-packing & poultry-industry hardly makes me surprised this is happening. (not to say I would wish it on anyone, it's just not a suprise). Note the comment about how the poultry manure is mentioned as 'fertilzer or feed'?? Yeah, i've heard from a farmer-relative how they feed dairy cows processed chicken-manure to save on costs. Yeah, now doesn't THAT sound smart & ecological! pardon me while i become sick.

[Mithrandir]

I don't think being a vegitarian will save you from an avian flu outbreak. That's not the kind of thing that spreads it. The problem is when the virus mutates from a strand that affects birds to a stand that affects humans. If that happens, humans will catch it just like any other cold/flu.

(Over-simplified for clarity's sake.)

[skylender]

Mithrandir: i only have one thing to say aout your posts, awesome! you know your stuff! your completly correct. the virus is mainly spread through bird poop, properly cooked bird meat will not spread it, for heat kills the flu.

[Tommy]

Let's shoot every duck in the planet! AHHAHAHAAH!

Makes me wish it was a cat flu.


JUST KIDDING!


*runs away from 9/10 of the CAA female population carrying torches, pitchforks, and explosive peach cobbler.*

[skylender]

Makes me wish it was a cat flu.


JUST KIDDING!


*runs away from 9/10 of the CAA female population carrying torches, pitchforks, and explosive peach cobbler.*

it's capable of infecting warm blooded mammels.