Archan wrote:Ah, I never said that you said the number was 115, this is what was stated in one of the reports you linked, which was a false assumption on their part.....
They never assumed it was the mean either, they only gave it as the number of abductions for the sample year. BTW, you were the one who linked to the reports, not me.
Your education? Sorry, what is it that you do? Regardless I myself am a humble Art student, but have been known to hold intellectual debates with Psychologist, Ph.D's, Astro Physicist, and others whom usually credit my arguments to be more then valid, so educational means and such shouldn't be too much of a determining factor of an anime thread. Besides, I doubt either of us work at the Department Of Justice, in particular specialist in the department of Missing Persons.......
I'm a Ph.D student in electrical engineering. I specialize in signal processing and telecommunications(which is heavily dependant on statistics), although I have also done some work relating to neural networks and machine learning. While I don't work with population statistics, I am familiar with methods in time series analysis, and statistical estimation.
Why mention them....why wouldn't I? Given the original context from the 15,000 estimate I did was stated as saying either they weren't found or found killed, I humbly admit I was wrong. The number has more then overshot my original 15,000 estimate, and though they are not all killed or remain missing, a very large percentage of the R&T cases and non-family missing persons cases occuring during the fall season alone where subjected to physical and sexual harm. (79% roughly, not sure though) This can be more then related to such rituals as blood letting and in particular sexualt rituals that have been verified by former occultic witches and high priests.....
The problem is that as we have established there is no demonstrable rise in abductions or R&T cases around dates of occult signficance. As a result, there is no reason to believe that Halloween is any more risky from a missing persons point of view than any other time of the year. As far as sexual assaults go, the number is about ~46% of all abductions in the NISMART dataset, and ~31% for physical assaults. These absolutely cannot be demonstrated to have
any link to occult practices, since these events obviously happen without any such links (and far more often). Given the data presented, there is no reason whatsoever to believe that any ritual aspect was present in these cases.
As far as "occult high priests" are concerned, such stories are more the stuff of urban legend and public hysteria. Neither the FBI nor the RCMP lend much credence to such stories, so I see no reason why we should either.
As for the 99%, they weren't all found alive. If you read the document closely, it states that 99% of all the Cases (1,300,000 roughly) where found alive OR located, and that the other fraction (which still hit the thousands) had not been located at all.
No, in 99% of all abduction cases, the NISMART2 report clearly states that the victims were returned alive to their families. In R&T cases, the missing persons are returned in 99% of all cases. While in the latter, the authors don't specifically state that the person is alive, this can be reasonably inferred given that the alternative is rather notable. If the subject were found dead in a signficant number of cases, it would merit mentioning.
As far as a need to be an increase....why? Does not the fact that the abductions themselves occouring in coencidence with the fall holiday enough for you
No is not. Abductions also happen in winter, spring and summer. There is no reason to believe that there is anything remakable about their occuring in fall as well. Moreover, as is clear from the data, there is no coincidence with the fall holiday for the abudction data. You keep inferring this without any reasonable basis for doing so. You need to show that there is an increased number of abductions around Halloween for there to be any positive link. Not only have you failed to show this, but the statistics which you have provided directly refute your contention of their being a link at all.
, better yet, I'll divide the new number of 354,379 (Being the older 79,737 figure is not accurate) in three (To accurately represent the three months of September, October, and November) to give a general number of 118,126 cases that are garaunteed to have happened during the month of October.
You are being disingenous in linking abductions to the numbers you present here. You know as well as I do that those figures include runaway/throwaway cases in them as well. Since the actual number of reported abudctions for the study year was 58,200, the real numbers are considerably lower. Even with the inflated numbers there is no linkage to Halloween or to the fall season itself. You could with as much justification argue against Easter, since more abductions occur in the spring than in fall.
Also, here in California, particulalrity in the hills of Hacienda and other secluded wooded areas, there are more then enough reports of occult activity increasing during the holloween season from local papers and communities, and sure enough the next few days children (in particular teenagers) are reported missing. So when things are happening in your own backyard, it's hard to ignore them and write them off as a simply statistic.
Anecdotal accounts are problematic since they lack rigorous examination, and may come from dubious sources. There
may be people into the occult in your area, or just poseurs. Or there could be just teenagers getting drunk in the woods and horsing around. Pranksters, local busybodies, and the overly credulous probably have a role in many of these reports as well.
As far as missing persons go, has anyone followed up these cases (and I don't mean through the local rumour mill)? People looking for sinister connections with Halloween may simply be paying more attention to missing persons reports around that time of the year. Also, many of the cases may be runaways, or kids who have simply taken off with friends, or who have very reactive parents. Even if abductions do occur, it may simply be due to greater opportunity: many teenagers will be out partying, and less than sober. Anonymity is also readily purchased in the form of a mask, which will not be much remarked on at this time of the year. In short, there are other explanations that are more credible than sinister occult plots.
The scientific method," Thomas Henry Huxley once wrote, "is nothing but the normal working of the human mind." That is to say, when the mind is working; that is to say further, when it is engaged in corrrecting its mistakes. Taking this point of view, we may conclude that science is not physics, biology, or chemistry—is not even a "subject"—but a moral imperative drawn from a larger narrative whose purpose is to give perspective, balance, and humility to learning.
Neil Postman
(The End of Education)
Anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge
Isaac Aasimov